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Quantifying and controlling catastrophic risks

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Quantifying and controlling catastrophic risksB. John Garrick ; contributors, Robert F. Christie ... [et al.].
作者:	Garrick, B. John.
其他作者:	Christie, Robert F.
出版者:	Amsterdam ;Academic Press/Elsevier,c2008.
面頁冊數:	xxii, 351 p. :ill. ;24 cm.
標題:	Emergency management.
電子資源:	An electronic book accessible through the World Wide Web; click for information
ISBN:	9780123746016

Quantifying and controlling catastrophic risks
Garrick, B. John.

Quantifying and controlling catastrophic risks[electronic resource] /B. John Garrick ; contributors, Robert F. Christie ... [et al.]. - Amsterdam ;Academic Press/Elsevier,c2008. - xxii, 351 p. :ill. ;24 cm.

Includes bibliographical references and indexes.

PART 1 ? WHY RISK ASSESSMENT -- Chapter 1 ? Understanding Risk Assessement -- 1.1The Target Risks -- 1.2The Quantitative Definition of Risk -- 1.3The Meaning of Quantification -- 1.4Form of the Results of a Quantitative Risk Assessment -- 1.5References -- Chapter 2 ? Analytical Foundations of Quantitative Risk Assessment -- 2.1Quantitative Definition of Risk -- 2.2The Scenario Approach to Quantitative Risk Assessment -- 2.3Interpretation of Probability and Likelihood -- 2.4Quantification of the Scenarios -- 2.5Assembling the Results -- 2.6References -- Chapter 3 ? The Rational Management of Catastrophic Risks -- 3.1Benefits of Quantitative Risk Assessment -- 3.2The Role of the Case Studies -- 3.3Comparing Quantitative Risks Using the Case Studies -- 3.4Observations from the Case Studies -- 3.5Insights from Comparing Results -- 3.6Where Do We Go from Here? -- References -- PART 2 ? Risk Assessment Case Studies -- Chapter 3 ? Risk of a Catastrophic Hurricane in -- 3.1Summary of the Risk Assessment of a Catastrophic Hurricane Impacting New Orleans, Louisiana -- 3.2Risk Assessment (Based on Data from 1900 to 2004) -- 3.3Commentary on the New Orleans Hurricane Risk -- 3.4Risk Assessment (Based on Data from 1900 to 1950) -- 3.5References -- Chapter 4- Risk Assessment Nuclear Power -- 4.1Calculating Likelihoods -- 4.2Structuring the Scenarios -- 4.3Steps That Have Evolved for Integrated Quantitative Risk Assessment -- 4.4Application to Nuclear Power: A Success Story -- 4.5An Example of Nuclear Power Plant Quantitative Risk Assessment Results -- 4.6References -- PART 3 ? WORK IN PROGRESS AND FUTURE APPLICATIONS -- Chapter 5 ? Terrorist Attack on the National Electrical Grid -- 5.1Summary of Insights from the Scoping Analysis -- 5.2A Scoping Analysis to Support a Quantitative Risk Assessment of a Specific Terrorist Attack -- 5.3References -- Chapter 6 ? Abrupt Climate Change -- 6.1Summary of Insights from the Scoping Analysis -- 6.2Scoping Analysis to Support a Quantitative Risk Assessment of Abrupt Climate Change -- 6.3Illustration of Bayesian Analyses for Warming Rates -- 6.4References -- 8.7 -- APPENDICES -- Appendix A ? Roots of Quantitative Risk Assessment with an Example -- A.1Calculating Likelihoods -- A.2Structuring the Scenarios -- A.3Steps That Have Evolved for Integrated Quantitative Risk Assessment -- A.4Application to Nuclear Power: A Success Story -- A.5An Example of Nuclear Power Plant Quantitative Risk Assessment Results -- A.6References -- Appendix B ? Quantification of Hurricane Risk Supporting Evidence -- Appendix C ? Quantification of Asteroid Risk Supporting Evidence.

The perception, assessment and management of risk are increasingly important core principles for determining the development of both policy and strategic responses to civil and environmental catastrophes. Whereas these principles were once confined to some areas of activity i.e. financial and insurance, they are now widely used in civil and environmental engineering. Comprehensive and readable, Civil and Environmental Risk: Mitigation and Control, provides readers with the mathematical tools and quantitative methods for determining the probability of a catastrophic event and mitigating and controlling the aftermath. With this book engineers develop the required skills for accurately assessing risk and formulating appropriate response strategies. The two part treatment starts with a clear and rigorous exposition of the quantitative risk assessment process, followed by self-contained chapters concerning applications. One of the first books to address both natural and human generated disasters, topics include events such as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents and terrorist attacks. Case studies appear at the end of the book allowing engineers to see how these principles are applied to scenarios such as a super hurricane or mega tsunamis, a reactor core melt down in a nuclear plant, a terrorist attack on the national electric grid, and an abrupt climate change brought about by a change in the ocean currents in the North Atlantic. Written by the current Chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, Environmental risk managers will find this reference a valuable and authoritative guide both in accurately calculating risk and its applications in their work. Key Features Mathematical tools for calculating and Controlling Catastrophic Risk Presents a systematic method for ranking the importance of societal threats Includes both Natural and Industrial Catastrophes Case studies cover such events as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents, and terrorist attacks.

Electronic reproduction.
Amsterdam :
Elsevier Science & Technology,
2008.

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

ISBN: 9780123746016

Source: 158656:158827Elsevier Science & Technologyhttp://www.sciencedirect.comSubjects--Topical Terms:

202270
Emergency management.
Index Terms--Genre/Form:

214472
Electronic books.

LC Class. No.: HV551.2 / .G37 2008eb

Dewey Class. No.: 363.342

Quantifying and controlling catastrophic risks
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300 $a xxii, 351 p. : $b ill. ; $c 24 cm.
504 $a Includes bibliographical references and indexes.
505 0 $a PART 1 ? WHY RISK ASSESSMENT -- Chapter 1 ? Understanding Risk Assessement -- 1.1The Target Risks -- 1.2The Quantitative Definition of Risk -- 1.3The Meaning of Quantification -- 1.4Form of the Results of a Quantitative Risk Assessment -- 1.5References -- Chapter 2 ? Analytical Foundations of Quantitative Risk Assessment -- 2.1Quantitative Definition of Risk -- 2.2The Scenario Approach to Quantitative Risk Assessment -- 2.3Interpretation of Probability and Likelihood -- 2.4Quantification of the Scenarios -- 2.5Assembling the Results -- 2.6References -- Chapter 3 ? The Rational Management of Catastrophic Risks -- 3.1Benefits of Quantitative Risk Assessment -- 3.2The Role of the Case Studies -- 3.3Comparing Quantitative Risks Using the Case Studies -- 3.4Observations from the Case Studies -- 3.5Insights from Comparing Results -- 3.6Where Do We Go from Here? -- References -- PART 2 ? Risk Assessment Case Studies -- Chapter 3 ? Risk of a Catastrophic Hurricane in -- 3.1Summary of the Risk Assessment of a Catastrophic Hurricane Impacting New Orleans, Louisiana -- 3.2Risk Assessment (Based on Data from 1900 to 2004) -- 3.3Commentary on the New Orleans Hurricane Risk -- 3.4Risk Assessment (Based on Data from 1900 to 1950) -- 3.5References -- Chapter 4- Risk Assessment Nuclear Power -- 4.1Calculating Likelihoods -- 4.2Structuring the Scenarios -- 4.3Steps That Have Evolved for Integrated Quantitative Risk Assessment -- 4.4Application to Nuclear Power: A Success Story -- 4.5An Example of Nuclear Power Plant Quantitative Risk Assessment Results -- 4.6References -- PART 3 ? WORK IN PROGRESS AND FUTURE APPLICATIONS -- Chapter 5 ? Terrorist Attack on the National Electrical Grid -- 5.1Summary of Insights from the Scoping Analysis -- 5.2A Scoping Analysis to Support a Quantitative Risk Assessment of a Specific Terrorist Attack -- 5.3References -- Chapter 6 ? Abrupt Climate Change -- 6.1Summary of Insights from the Scoping Analysis -- 6.2Scoping Analysis to Support a Quantitative Risk Assessment of Abrupt Climate Change -- 6.3Illustration of Bayesian Analyses for Warming Rates -- 6.4References -- 8.7 -- APPENDICES -- Appendix A ? Roots of Quantitative Risk Assessment with an Example -- A.1Calculating Likelihoods -- A.2Structuring the Scenarios -- A.3Steps That Have Evolved for Integrated Quantitative Risk Assessment -- A.4Application to Nuclear Power: A Success Story -- A.5An Example of Nuclear Power Plant Quantitative Risk Assessment Results -- A.6References -- Appendix B ? Quantification of Hurricane Risk Supporting Evidence -- Appendix C ? Quantification of Asteroid Risk Supporting Evidence.
520 $a The perception, assessment and management of risk are increasingly important core principles for determining the development of both policy and strategic responses to civil and environmental catastrophes. Whereas these principles were once confined to some areas of activity i.e. financial and insurance, they are now widely used in civil and environmental engineering. Comprehensive and readable, Civil and Environmental Risk: Mitigation and Control, provides readers with the mathematical tools and quantitative methods for determining the probability of a catastrophic event and mitigating and controlling the aftermath. With this book engineers develop the required skills for accurately assessing risk and formulating appropriate response strategies. The two part treatment starts with a clear and rigorous exposition of the quantitative risk assessment process, followed by self-contained chapters concerning applications. One of the first books to address both natural and human generated disasters, topics include events such as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents and terrorist attacks. Case studies appear at the end of the book allowing engineers to see how these principles are applied to scenarios such as a super hurricane or mega tsunamis, a reactor core melt down in a nuclear plant, a terrorist attack on the national electric grid, and an abrupt climate change brought about by a change in the ocean currents in the North Atlantic. Written by the current Chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, Environmental risk managers will find this reference a valuable and authoritative guide both in accurately calculating risk and its applications in their work. Key Features Mathematical tools for calculating and Controlling Catastrophic Risk Presents a systematic method for ranking the importance of societal threats Includes both Natural and Industrial Catastrophes Case studies cover such events as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents, and terrorist attacks.
533 $a Electronic reproduction. $b Amsterdam : $c Elsevier Science & Technology, $d 2008. $n Mode of access: World Wide Web. $n System requirements: Web browser. $n Title from title screen (viewed on Dec. 9, 2008). $n Access may be restricted to users at subscribing institutions.
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