太陽能供需政策之系統動態模擬 = Using System Dynami...
國立高雄大學亞太工商管理學系碩士班

 

  • 太陽能供需政策之系統動態模擬 = Using System Dynamics on the Demand and Supply Policy of Solar Energy : 以台灣為例; A Case of Taiwan
  • Record Type: Language materials, printed : monographic
    Paralel Title: Using System Dynamics on the Demand and Supply Policy of Solar Energy
    Title Information: 以台灣為例
    Author: 孫艾薇,
    Secondary Intellectual Responsibility: 國立高雄大學
    Place of Publication: [高雄市]
    Published: 撰者;
    Year of Publication: 2012[民101]
    Description: 119面圖,表格 : 30公分;
    Subject: 系統動態學
    Subject: System Dynamics
    Online resource: http://handle.ncl.edu.tw/11296/ndltd/59482155209341141484
    Notes: 106年10月31日公開
    Notes: 參考書目:面101-105
    Notes: 含附錄
    Summary: 隨著能源需求的日益增長,以及環保意識的抬頭,綠色能源的發展成為世界上最重要的議題。在台灣由於無地域性以及便利性,太陽能發電為重點綠色能源發展之一,近年來政府也發展了許多推廣計畫,以發展太陽能發電以及系統安裝意願,然而,政府要付諸實踐這些計畫還是有許多的障礙以及困難。本研究以系統動態學來探討台灣供需政策對於整個太陽能的發展,以及透過模型建構找出其發展太陽能及安裝意願的主要因素。並藉由政策模擬結果來給與政府建議與修改政策方向。本研究的主要目的為建立台灣發展太陽能發電系統之複雜系統模型,並探討政府的政策激勵如何影響產業的發展以及市場意願與需求,最後給予政府修改政策之方向。根據模擬與分析,本研究得出以下結果: (1) 再生能源躉購制度之合約躉購期間為太陽能發電系統發展的主要因素;(2)再生能源躉購費率之遞減率的實施為影響安裝意願最重要的項目;(3)如政府欲刺激需求,則必須計畫更多研發投入,以達到整個系統成本的下降。然而,目前台灣的發展計畫皆學習以及參照德國的政策為主,為了長遠的發展,政府應該根據目前台灣的現況並進行政策修正。 Following with the energy demands are growing rapidly and the awareness of environmental protection, the development of Green Energy is becoming an important issue in the world. In Taiwan, because of convenience and without regional, it has already included solar energy promotion programs to develop the solar energy. However, there were many barriers to put into practice for these policies. This study conducts System Dynamics to explore Taiwan's solar energy and find the main factors of its development and installed willingness, then try to amend the policy direction in Taiwan. The main purpose of this study is to investigate and build the complex system of Taiwan’s solar energy, and to explore how the government's policy incentive influences the supplies form industry and demand from customers, and linkage among them. Afterwards amend the policy direction for the government. According to the outcomes of the simulation and analysis, some findings have been revealed as follows: (1) the period of buyback contract is key factor for solar PV system development. (2) The FIT decline is important for the installed willingness. (3) if the government wants to stimulate demand, needs to invest more R%D input in order to achieve the reduction of system cost. However, Taiwan's policies mostly learning from Germany experience, in order to long-term development, the government should be a policy amendment according to the current situation in Taiwan.
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