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Risk-Based Trend Detection for Clima...
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Rosner, Ana.
Risk-Based Trend Detection for Climate Change Adaptation.
紀錄類型:
書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:
Risk-Based Trend Detection for Climate Change Adaptation.
作者:
Rosner, Ana.
面頁冊數:
57 p.
附註:
Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 50-06, page: 4124.
附註:
Advisers: Richard M. Vogel; Paul. H. Kirshen; Elena N. Naumova.
Contained By:
Masters Abstracts International50-06.
標題:
Statistics.
電子資源:
http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=1512956
ISBN:
9781267414175
Risk-Based Trend Detection for Climate Change Adaptation.
Rosner, Ana.
Risk-Based Trend Detection for Climate Change Adaptation.
- 57 p.
Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 50-06, page: 4124.
Thesis (M.S.)--Tufts University, 2012.
The usual procedure for detecting climate change impacts from historic records chooses statistical criteria (usually alpha=0.05) to minimize the probability of Type I error, claiming a trend exists where it does not. However, it ignores Type II error, failing to detect an increasing trend in storm surges.
ISBN: 9781267414175Subjects--Topical Terms:
182057
Statistics.
Risk-Based Trend Detection for Climate Change Adaptation.
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For coastal climate change adaptation, the physical implication of a Type I error is wasted money on unneeded infrastructure. Repercussions of a Type II error, however, are major storm damages and flooding due to inadequate protection. Decision-makers are poorly served by statistical methods that do not carefully consider this type of error.
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We propose a new method that combines hypothesis testing, Risk-Based Decision Making, and decision analysis, to evaluate adaptations for a possibly costly but highly uncertain increase in storms. We propose a new metric, Expected Regret, that integrates the statistical certainty and the economic impacts of a trend. This method gives needed attention to the risks of under-preparing; conveys the statistical uncertainty in a physically meaningful way; and addresses the question, "Should we adapt now, despite the uncertainty?"
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