| 摘要註: |
一般而言,破產並非突發事件,其財務狀況在破產前期可能早有一些徵兆,而公司財務狀況開始惡化,財務報表上將有偏離健康公司的表現。對於管理者、投資者而言,如何及早發現公司有破產危機,是一個非常重要的議題。本文,我們希望建立一套判定準則,用來判斷公司近期是否有破產的可能性。在建立準則的過程中,我們必須考慮財務資料的序列相關及異質性,以避免判斷準則失真。因此,在考慮以上因素,利用健康公司建立實務上的標準,分析財務資料偏離的程度與時間點,作為判斷公司是否有破產的可能性及時間點,並以台灣製造業為實證,包含水泥業、食品業和塑膠業等等十一種分類,確立準則的可靠性及實用性。 Generally, bankruptcy is not a sudden event for the company, its financial position may have some signs before bankruptcy. When the company's financial situation began to deteriorate, the financial statements will deviate from the healthy company's performance. For managers, investors and researchers, how to detect that company has faced risk of bankruptcy is a very important issue. In this paper, we want to establish a criterion for judging whether there is the possibility of the company's recent bankruptcy. In the process of establishing the criterion, we must consider the heterogeneity and serial correlation in the financial information to avoid the criterion lost its correct rate. Therefore, in consideration of the above factors, the use of healthy companies to establish a standard practice on the analysis of the degree of deviation from the point in time of financial information, as judged by the company have the possibility and the time point of bankruptcy, and Taiwan manufacturing industry as evidence, contains cement industry, food industry and eleven kinds of classification plastics, etc., establishing guidelines reliability and practicality. |