| 摘要註: |
現代投資理財工具相當多元,如房地產、保險、債券、股票、期貨、共同基金、外匯等,而在台灣證券市場中每年交易人數約有3百萬人,可以看出證券市場是台灣投資人相當重視的投資理財工具之一。而投資人關心在市場中各種研究股市的方法,如技術分析、基本分析及有線電視的分析股市節目,無非就是希望在證券中市場中獲取超額報酬。然而,在證券市場中,一般投資大眾乃是資訊較少的一方,在進行投資標的選擇時,容易產生錯誤的決策,因此需要依賴各種投資信號。投資者除了參考公司所發佈的各項財務指標外,亦可將外資、投信及自營商的買賣超,當成為一種信號,來做為投資選股策略的參考依據。基於以上背景與動機,本研究以2014年1月1日至2014年12月31日的全體上市上櫃公司為研究對象,將每日的上市及上櫃區分為融資餘額增加、融券餘額增加、融資餘額減少、融券餘額減少等八個題材,配合外資、投信、自營商等三大法人買賣超,分別進行迴歸統計分析,探討其對個股漲跌幅的影響程度。主要是希望了解,投資人是否可在投資台灣股市時,依賴外資、投信、自營商買賣訊號做為進場依據。經實證結果發現,在上市部份可依外資與投信買賣超做為投資人投資股市的進場依據,而在上櫃部份則可依投信及自營商買賣超做為投資人投資股市的進場依據。 The way to manage finance and investment in modern times is diverse, including real estate, insurance, bonds, stocks, futures, mutual funds, and foreign exchange. The fact that approximately three million of investors annually in stock market firmly shows stocks as one of the most popular accesses Taiwanese deal with their finance. It leads to a variety of research methods, such as technical analysis, fundamental analysis and financial analysis on the TV programs, which fulfill increasing expectations of investors to earn interest in the market. Nevertheless, most investors in the stock market are difficult to gain enough information. It easily disables them to make correct decisions on the selection of investment targets. As a result, more investors tend to rely on various index, ranging from financial report of certain companies, foreign investment, to the figures of general transactions of trust funds and dealers. To measure the market by these financial figures becomes as a more reliable strategy for investors.Based on the background and research motives abovementioned, this study aims to investigate all the listed and OTC corporations during the period from January to December, 2014. It divides both daily listed and OTC corporations into four categories respectively, including these two types of public corporations with increase and decrease of margin loan balance, as well as those with increase and decrease of stock loan balance. These eight categories, combined with net buy/sell of foreign investor, trust funds, dealers, are examined by the method of regression analysis. It can serve as an instrument for investors to ponder elements of the rise and fall of the stock market, helping them make more reasonable decision upon selection of investment targets. This study, through empirical analysis, shows the conclusion that figures of foreign investor and trust funds are more useful references for investors to purchase stocks of listed corporations, while the measurement of OTC corporations is able to be relied more on the index of trust funds and dealers. |