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Robust simulation for mega-risksthe ...

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Robust simulation for mega-risksthe path from single-solution to competitive, multi-solution methods for mega-risk management /

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Robust simulation for mega-risksby Craig E. Taylor.
其他題名:	the path from single-solution to competitive, multi-solution methods for mega-risk management /
作者:	Taylor, Craig E.
出版者:	Cham :Springer International Publishing :2015.
面頁冊數:	xxi, 164 p. :ill., digital ;24 cm.
Contained By:	Springer eBooks
標題:	Emergency management.
電子資源:	http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4
ISBN:	9783319194134$q(electronic bk.)

Robust simulation for mega-risksthe path from single-solution to competitive, multi-solution methods for mega-risk management /
Taylor, Craig E.

Robust simulation for mega-risksthe path from single-solution to competitive, multi-solution methods for mega-risk management /[electronic resource] :by Craig E. Taylor. - Cham :Springer International Publishing :2015. - xxi, 164 p. :ill., digital ;24 cm.

Introduction: Initial Queries Going Forward -- The Deductivist Theory of Probability and Statistics -- The Frequency Theory of Probability -- Probability and Randomness as Beliefs: Bayesian Theory -- More Challenges to Tradition: Extreme Value Diagnostics, Power Laws, and the Wobble -- Mathematization of Statistics: Flexibility and Convergence -- Robust Simulation and Non-linear Reasoning: Quantitative and Qualitative Examples -- Managing Expectations: Qualitative Considerations And Quantitative Decision Procedures -- Conclusions and Queries.

This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking about mega-risks, a "paradigm shift" that moves from single-solutions to multiple competitive solutions and strategies. "Robust simulation" is a statistical approach that demonstrates future risk through simulation of a suite of possible answers. To arrive at this point, the book systematically walks through the historical statistical methods for evaluating risks. The first chapters deal with three theories of probability and statistics that have been dominant in the 20th century, along with key mathematical issues and dilemmas. The book then introduces "robust simulation" which solves the problem of measuring the stability of simulated losses, incorporates outliers, and simulates future risk through a suite of possible answers and stochastic modeling of unknown variables. This book discusses various analytical methods for utilizing divergent solutions in making pragmatic financial and risk-mitigation decisions. The book emphasizes the importance of flexibility and attempts to demonstrate that alternative credible approaches are helpful and required in understanding a great many phenomena.

ISBN: 9783319194134$q(electronic bk.)

Standard No.: 10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4doiSubjects--Topical Terms:

202270
Emergency management.

LC Class. No.: HV551.2

Dewey Class. No.: 363.34

Robust simulation for mega-risksthe path from single-solution to competitive, multi-solution methods for mega-risk management /
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