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Willful ignorance :the mismeasure of...

Weisberg, Herbert I., (1944-)

Willful ignorance :the mismeasure of uncertainty /

紀錄類型:	書目-語言資料,印刷品 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Willful ignorance :Herbert I. Weisberg.
其他題名:	the mismeasure of uncertainty /
作者:	Weisberg, Herbert I.,
出版者:	Hoboken, NJ :Wiley,c2014.
面頁冊數:	xvii, 434 p. :ill. ;24 cm.
標題:	ResearchStatistical methods.
電子資源:	http://catalogimages.wiley.com/images/db/jimages/9780470890448.jpg
ISBN:	9780470890448 (pbk.) :

Willful ignorance :the mismeasure of uncertainty /
Weisberg, Herbert I.,1944-

Willful ignorance :the mismeasure of uncertainty /Herbert I. Weisberg. - Hoboken, NJ :Wiley,c2014. - xvii, 434 p. :ill. ;24 cm.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 415-427) and index.

Machine generated contents note: 1 The Opposite of Certainty 2 A Quiet Revolution 3 A Matter of Chance 4 Hardly Touched Upon 5 A Mathematician of Basel 6 A Defect of Character 7 Classical Probability 8 Babel 9 Probability and Reality 10 The Decision Factory 11 The Lottery in Science 12 Trust, but Verify Acknowledgments Notes Bibliography Index .

"An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of both scientists and the lay public.Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology, though enormously productive and influential over the past century, is approaching a crisis. The deep and troubling divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research, and between research and practice, are reflections of this underlying problem. The author outlines a path toward the re-engineering of data analysis to help close these gaps and accelerate scientific discovery. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty presents essential information and novel ideas that should be of interest to anyone concerned about the future of scientific research. The book is especially pertinent for professionals in statistics and related fields, including practicing and research clinicians, biomedical and social science researchers, business leaders, and policy-makers"--

ISBN: 9780470890448 (pbk.) :NT$974

LCCN: 2014007297Subjects--Topical Terms:

185277
Research
--Statistical methods.

LC Class. No.: Q180.55.S7 / W45 2014

Dewey Class. No.: 001.4/22

Willful ignorance :the mismeasure of uncertainty /
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020 $a 9780470890448 (pbk.) : $c NT$974
020 $a 0470890444 (pbk.)
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040 $a DLC $b eng $c DLC $d DLC
042 $a pcc
050 0 0 $a Q180.55.S7 $b W45 2014
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100 1 $a Weisberg, Herbert I., $d 1944- $3 722755
245 1 0 $a Willful ignorance : $b the mismeasure of uncertainty / $c Herbert I. Weisberg.
260 $a Hoboken, NJ : $b Wiley, $c c2014.
300 $a xvii, 434 p. : $b ill. ; $c 24 cm.
504 $a Includes bibliographical references (p. 415-427) and index.
505 8 $a Machine generated contents note: 1 The Opposite of Certainty 2 A Quiet Revolution 3 A Matter of Chance 4 Hardly Touched Upon 5 A Mathematician of Basel 6 A Defect of Character 7 Classical Probability 8 Babel 9 Probability and Reality 10 The Decision Factory 11 The Lottery in Science 12 Trust, but Verify Acknowledgments Notes Bibliography Index .
520 $a "An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of both scientists and the lay public.Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology, though enormously productive and influential over the past century, is approaching a crisis. The deep and troubling divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research, and between research and practice, are reflections of this underlying problem. The author outlines a path toward the re-engineering of data analysis to help close these gaps and accelerate scientific discovery. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty presents essential information and novel ideas that should be of interest to anyone concerned about the future of scientific research. The book is especially pertinent for professionals in statistics and related fields, including practicing and research clinicians, biomedical and social science researchers, business leaders, and policy-makers"-- $c Provided by publisher.
520 $a "This provocative new book posits how the tacit principle of "willful ignorance" has led to a deep divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research that will increasingly constrain scientific progress unless bridged by a broadened conception of statistical methodology"-- $c Provided by publisher.
650 0 $a Research $x Statistical methods. $3 185277
650 0 $a Probabilities. $3 182046
650 0 $a Research $x Methodology. $3 182554
856 4 2 $3 Cover image $u http://catalogimages.wiley.com/images/db/jimages/9780470890448.jpg