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Developments in demographic forecasting

Keilman, Nico.

Developments in demographic forecasting

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Developments in demographic forecastingedited by Stefano Mazzuco, Nico Keilman.
其他作者:	Mazzuco, Stefano.
出版者:	Cham :Springer International Publishing :2020.
面頁冊數:	viii, 258 p. :ill., digital ;24 cm.
Contained By:	Springer Nature eBook
標題:	Population forecasting.
電子資源:	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42472-5
ISBN:	9783030424725$q(electronic bk.)

Developments in demographic forecasting
Developments in demographic forecasting[electronic resource] /edited by Stefano Mazzuco, Nico Keilman. - Cham :Springer International Publishing :2020. - viii, 258 p. :ill., digital ;24 cm. - The Springer series on demographic methods and population analysis,v.491389-6784 ;. - Springer series on demographic methods and population analysis ;33..

Chapter 1. Introduction -- Chapter 2. Stochastic population forecasting: A Bayesian approach based on evaluation by experts -- Chapter 3. Using expert elicitation to build long-term projection assumptions -- Chapter 4. Post-Transitional Demography and Convergence: What can we Learn from Half a Century of World Population Prospects? -- Chapter 5. Projecting Proportionate Age-Specific Fertility Rates via Bayesian Skewed Processes -- Chapter 6. A Three-component Approach to Model and Forecast Age-at-death Distributions -- Chapter 7. Alternative forecasts of Danish life expectancy -- Chapter 8. Coherent mortality forecasting with standards: low mortality serves as a guide -- Chapter 9. European mortality forecasts: Are the targets still moving? -- Chapter 10. Bayesian disaggregated forecasts: Internal migration in Iceland -- Chapter 11. Forecasting origin-destination-age-sex migration flow tables with multiplicative components -- Chapter 12. New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Age and Ageing.

Open access.

This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

ISBN: 9783030424725$q(electronic bk.)

Standard No.: 10.1007/978-3-030-42472-5doiSubjects--Topical Terms:

249499
Population forecasting.

LC Class. No.: HB849.4 / .D48 2020

Dewey Class. No.: 304.6

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505 0 $a Chapter 1. Introduction -- Chapter 2. Stochastic population forecasting: A Bayesian approach based on evaluation by experts -- Chapter 3. Using expert elicitation to build long-term projection assumptions -- Chapter 4. Post-Transitional Demography and Convergence: What can we Learn from Half a Century of World Population Prospects? -- Chapter 5. Projecting Proportionate Age-Specific Fertility Rates via Bayesian Skewed Processes -- Chapter 6. A Three-component Approach to Model and Forecast Age-at-death Distributions -- Chapter 7. Alternative forecasts of Danish life expectancy -- Chapter 8. Coherent mortality forecasting with standards: low mortality serves as a guide -- Chapter 9. European mortality forecasts: Are the targets still moving? -- Chapter 10. Bayesian disaggregated forecasts: Internal migration in Iceland -- Chapter 11. Forecasting origin-destination-age-sex migration flow tables with multiplicative components -- Chapter 12. New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Age and Ageing.
506 $a Open access.
520 $a This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
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