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Probabilistic risk analysis and Bayesian decision theory

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Probabilistic risk analysis and Bayesian decision theoryby Marcel van Oijen, Mark Brewer.
Author:	Van Oijen, Marcel.
other author:	Brewer, Mark.
Published:	Cham :Springer International Publishing :2022.
Description:	xiii, 114 p. :ill., digital ;24 cm.
Contained By:	Springer Nature eBook
Subject:	Bayesian statistical decision theory.
Online resource:	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-16333-3
ISBN:	9783031163333$q(electronic bk.)

Probabilistic risk analysis and Bayesian decision theory
Van Oijen, Marcel.

Probabilistic risk analysis and Bayesian decision theory[electronic resource] /by Marcel van Oijen, Mark Brewer. - Cham :Springer International Publishing :2022. - xiii, 114 p. :ill., digital ;24 cm. - SpringerBriefs in statistics,2191-5458. - SpringerBriefs in statistics..

The book shows how risk, defined as the statistical expectation of loss, can be formally decomposed as the product of two terms: hazard probability and system vulnerability. This requires a specific definition of vulnerability that replaces the many fuzzy definitions abounding in the literature. The approach is expanded to more complex risk analysis with three components rather than two, and with various definitions of hazard. Equations are derived to quantify the uncertainty of each risk component and show how the approach relates to Bayesian decision theory. Intended for statisticians, environmental scientists and risk analysts interested in the theory and application of risk analysis, this book provides precise definitions, new theory, and many examples with full computer code. The approach is based on straightforward use of probability theory which brings rigour and clarity. Only a moderate knowledge and understanding of probability theory is expected from the reader.

ISBN: 9783031163333$q(electronic bk.)

Standard No.: 10.1007/978-3-031-16333-3doiSubjects--Topical Terms:

182005
Bayesian statistical decision theory.

LC Class. No.: QA279.5

Dewey Class. No.: 519.542

Probabilistic risk analysis and Bayesian decision theory
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245 1 0 $a Probabilistic risk analysis and Bayesian decision theory $h [electronic resource] / $c by Marcel van Oijen, Mark Brewer.
260 $a Cham : $b Springer International Publishing : $b Imprint: Springer, $c 2022.
300 $a xiii, 114 p. : $b ill., digital ; $c 24 cm.
490 1 $a SpringerBriefs in statistics, $x 2191-5458
520 $a The book shows how risk, defined as the statistical expectation of loss, can be formally decomposed as the product of two terms: hazard probability and system vulnerability. This requires a specific definition of vulnerability that replaces the many fuzzy definitions abounding in the literature. The approach is expanded to more complex risk analysis with three components rather than two, and with various definitions of hazard. Equations are derived to quantify the uncertainty of each risk component and show how the approach relates to Bayesian decision theory. Intended for statisticians, environmental scientists and risk analysts interested in the theory and application of risk analysis, this book provides precise definitions, new theory, and many examples with full computer code. The approach is based on straightforward use of probability theory which brings rigour and clarity. Only a moderate knowledge and understanding of probability theory is expected from the reader.
650 0 $a Bayesian statistical decision theory. $3 182005
650 0 $a Probabilities. $3 182046
650 0 $a Risk assessment $x Statistical methods. $3 208496
700 1 $a Brewer, Mark. $3 939474
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