國立高雄大學圖資館 |

Language: English

Back

Time predictionsunderstanding and av...

Halkjelsvik, Torleif.

Time predictionsunderstanding and avoiding unrealism in project planning and everyday life /

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Time predictionsby Torleif Halkjelsvik, Magne Jorgensen.
Reminder of title:	understanding and avoiding unrealism in project planning and everyday life /
Author:	Halkjelsvik, Torleif.
other author:	Jorgensen, Magne.
Published:	Cham :Springer International Publishing :2018.
Description:	xii, 110 p. :ill. (some col.), digital ;24 cm.
Contained By:	Springer eBooks
Subject:	Project management.
Online resource:	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74953-2
ISBN:	9783319749532$q(electronic bk.)

Time predictionsunderstanding and avoiding unrealism in project planning and everyday life /
Halkjelsvik, Torleif.

Time predictionsunderstanding and avoiding unrealism in project planning and everyday life /[electronic resource] :by Torleif Halkjelsvik, Magne Jorgensen. - Cham :Springer International Publishing :2018. - xii, 110 p. :ill. (some col.), digital ;24 cm. - Simula SpringerBriefs on computing ;v.5. - Simula SpringerBriefs on computing ;v.1..

Preface -- 1. Introduction: 1.1 A prediction success -- 1.2 Prediction disasters -- 2. How we Predict Time Usage: 2.1 Mental time travel -- 2.2 How did you make that prediction? -- 2.3 Time predictions are everywhere -- 2.4 How good are we at predicting time? -- 3. Predictions and the Uncertainty of the Future: 3.1 Precisely wrong or roughly right? -- 3.2 Communication of time predictions -- 3.3 Probability-based time predictions -- 3.4 Right-skewed time distributions -- 3.5 Relearning to add: 2 + 2 is usually more than 4 -- 3.6 How to predict the mean time usage -- 3.7 How time predictions affect performance -- 4. Overoptimistic Predictions: 4.1 Optimism, overoptimism, and overoptimistic predictions -- 4.2 The benefits of overoptimism -- 4.3 The desire to control time -- 4.4 Motivation to make accurate time usage predictions -- 4.5 Selection bias -- 4.6 Deception -- 4.7 Who makes the most realistic time predictions? -- 5. Time Prediction Biases: 5.1 The team scaling fallacy -- 5.2 Anchoring -- 5.3 Sequence effects -- 5.4 Format effects -- 5.5 The magnitude effect -- 5.6 Length of task description -- 5.7 The time unit effect -- 6. Uncertainty of Time Predictions: 6.1 Why are we overconfident? -- 6.2 What can we do to avoid overconfidence? -- 6.2.1 The use of alternative interval prediction formats -- 6.2.2 Learning from accuracy feedback -- 7. Time Prediction Methods and Principles: 7.1 Unpacking and decomposition -- 7.2 Analogies -- 7.3 Relative predictions -- 7.4 Time prediction models -- 7.5 Consider alternative futures -- 7.6 Combinations of time predictions -- 7.7 Let other people make the prediction? -- 7.8 Removing irrelevant and misleading information -- 7.9 From Fibonacci to t-shirt sizes: Time predictions using alternative scales -- 8. Time Predictions: Matching the Method to the Situation -- 9. How to Obtain Overoptimistic Time Predictions from Others.

Open access.

This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.

ISBN: 9783319749532$q(electronic bk.)

Standard No.: 10.1007/978-3-319-74953-2doiSubjects--Topical Terms:

199326
Project management.

LC Class. No.: HD69.P75 / H346 2018

Dewey Class. No.: 658.404

Time predictionsunderstanding and avoiding unrealism in project planning and everyday life /
LDR:04283nmm a2200349 a 4500 001 568671
003 DE-He213
005 20190619085418.0
006 m d
007 cr nn 008maaau
008 200707s2018 sz s 0 eng d
020 $a 9783319749532$q(electronic bk.)
020 $a 9783319749525$q(paper)
024 7 $a 10.1007/978-3-319-74953-2 $2 doi
035 $a 978-3-319-74953-2
040 $a GP $c GP
041 0 $a eng
050 4 $a HD69.P75 $b H346 2018
072 7 $a KCK $2 bicssc
072 7 $a BUS085000 $2 bisacsh
072 7 $a KCK $2 thema
082 0 4 $a 658.404 $2 23
090 $a HD69.P75 $b H173 2018
100 1 $a Halkjelsvik, Torleif. $3 854564
245 1 0 $a Time predictions $h [electronic resource] : $b understanding and avoiding unrealism in project planning and everyday life / $c by Torleif Halkjelsvik, Magne Jorgensen.
260 $a Cham : $b Springer International Publishing : $b Imprint: Springer, $c 2018.
300 $a xii, 110 p. : $b ill. (some col.), digital ; $c 24 cm.
490 1 $a Simula SpringerBriefs on computing ; $v v.5
505 0 $a Preface -- 1. Introduction: 1.1 A prediction success -- 1.2 Prediction disasters -- 2. How we Predict Time Usage: 2.1 Mental time travel -- 2.2 How did you make that prediction? -- 2.3 Time predictions are everywhere -- 2.4 How good are we at predicting time? -- 3. Predictions and the Uncertainty of the Future: 3.1 Precisely wrong or roughly right? -- 3.2 Communication of time predictions -- 3.3 Probability-based time predictions -- 3.4 Right-skewed time distributions -- 3.5 Relearning to add: 2 + 2 is usually more than 4 -- 3.6 How to predict the mean time usage -- 3.7 How time predictions affect performance -- 4. Overoptimistic Predictions: 4.1 Optimism, overoptimism, and overoptimistic predictions -- 4.2 The benefits of overoptimism -- 4.3 The desire to control time -- 4.4 Motivation to make accurate time usage predictions -- 4.5 Selection bias -- 4.6 Deception -- 4.7 Who makes the most realistic time predictions? -- 5. Time Prediction Biases: 5.1 The team scaling fallacy -- 5.2 Anchoring -- 5.3 Sequence effects -- 5.4 Format effects -- 5.5 The magnitude effect -- 5.6 Length of task description -- 5.7 The time unit effect -- 6. Uncertainty of Time Predictions: 6.1 Why are we overconfident? -- 6.2 What can we do to avoid overconfidence? -- 6.2.1 The use of alternative interval prediction formats -- 6.2.2 Learning from accuracy feedback -- 7. Time Prediction Methods and Principles: 7.1 Unpacking and decomposition -- 7.2 Analogies -- 7.3 Relative predictions -- 7.4 Time prediction models -- 7.5 Consider alternative futures -- 7.6 Combinations of time predictions -- 7.7 Let other people make the prediction? -- 7.8 Removing irrelevant and misleading information -- 7.9 From Fibonacci to t-shirt sizes: Time predictions using alternative scales -- 8. Time Predictions: Matching the Method to the Situation -- 9. How to Obtain Overoptimistic Time Predictions from Others.
506 $a Open access.
520 $a This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.
650 0 $a Project management. $3 199326
650 0 $a Time management. $3 230369
650 0 $a Personnel management. $3 185191
650 0 $a Management information systems. $3 199355
650 0 $a Economics $x Psychological aspects. $3 190596
650 1 4 $a Behavioral/Experimental Economics. $3 737421
650 2 4 $a Human Resource Management. $3 511062
650 2 4 $a Project Management. $3 515728
650 2 4 $a Software Management. $3 715554
700 1 $a Jorgensen, Magne. $3 854565
710 2 $a SpringerLink (Online service) $3 273601
773 0 $t Springer eBooks
830 0 $a Simula SpringerBriefs on computing ; $v v.1. $3 741740
856 4 0 $u https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74953-2
950 $a Economics and Finance (Springer-41170)