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以馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法探討水資源利用之不確定性分析 = Uncertain...

國立高雄大學土木與環境工程學系碩士班

以馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法探討水資源利用之不確定性分析 = Uncertainty analysis for water resources utilization by Markov Chain Monte Carlo method

Record Type:	Language materials, printed : monographic
Paralel Title:	Uncertainty analysis for water resources utilization by Markov Chain Monte Carlo method
Author:	紀証耀,
Secondary Intellectual Responsibility:	國立高雄大學
Place of Publication:	[高雄市]
Published:	撰者;
Year of Publication:	2008[民97]
Description:	134面圖，表 : 30公分;
Subject:	馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法
Subject:	Markov Chain Monte Carlo method
Online resource:	http://handle.ncl.edu.tw/11296/ndltd/81645301843071410930
Notes:	指導教授：甯蜀光
Notes:	參考書目：面102-110
Notes:	附錄：1.荖濃溪流量馬可夫鏈轉換矩陣；2.隘寮溪流量馬可夫鏈轉換矩陣；3.旗山溪流量馬可夫鏈轉換矩陣
Summary:	高屏溪為全台流域面積最廣之河川，但由於溪域中缺乏實質的蓄水設施，在南部地區乾溼季區隔明顯的氣候下，若能將雨季豐沛的水資源保存住，便能解決在乾季時的用水問題，但在環境保育意識逐漸抬頭的現今，興建蓄水設施常遭遇居民阻撓，以致水庫堰壩等工程受阻，因此現階段規劃策略為利用現有蓄水設施，以越域引水之方式，將高屏溪流域之水資源引至鄰近流域儲存，以解決日益增加的需水問題。然而，在此規劃下，雖可能解決需水問題，卻使被引水之河川流量減少，造成涵容能力下降的問題，尤其是高屏溪流域下游原本就屬汙染較為嚴重之區域，引水後可能更為惡化。因此，本研究首先依據流域中重要水文站流量長年紀錄，進行頻率分析，確定流量機率分佈特性，並以馬可夫鏈關聯矩陣建立流量之時間關聯性，進而利用QUAL2K水質模擬模式，配合各項越域引水計畫及現行水體分類水質標準，設計不同情境分析適合引水方案。結果顯示：在以越域引水計畫原設計之引水標準下，豐水期初始月份及最終月份由於河川流量偏少，使水質達到環境標準比例較低；此外，本研究亦建立多項污染削減比率之情境，進行不確定性分析，提供越域引水計畫實際運作之參考，以期能兼顧環境永續及經濟發展之雙重目標。 Reservoir construction was usually utilized means for increasing water demand for a long time in Taiwan. Recently, the conscious of environmental protection and the will of the citizenry have led the water policy to promote the efficiency of water use and to integrate the existed facilities for overall planning. Thus many project of transboundary water resources allocation was implemented in the basins. Owing to the severe variation of flow rate in the time scale, the withdraw capacity is difficult to design in this area. In the meantime, the misgivings of environmental impact due to the change of the assimilative capacity come into notice. This research was used frequency analysis in the first instance to determine the type of probability distribution of stream flow and decide the transition matrix of Markov chains in this study. First order Markov model was utilized to connect the time successively hydrological information. Flow rates simulation and withdraw strategies was combined with the QUAL2K water quality simulation model for confirm the river water quality could meet the environmental standard. Finally, Markov Chain Monte Carlo method was used to evaluate the uncertainty of water resources utilization. The practical implementation is assessed by a case study of the Kao-Ping River Basin system in Taiwan. The achievement of this research would be beneficial to the implement of planning and management for transboundary water resources allocation in Taiwan.

以馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法探討水資源利用之不確定性分析 = Uncertainty analysis for water resources utilization by Markov Chain Monte Carlo method
紀, 証耀

以馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法探討水資源利用之不確定性分析 = Uncertainty analysis for water resources utilization by Markov Chain Monte Carlo method / 紀証耀撰 - [高雄市] : 撰者, 2008[民97]. - 134面 ; 圖，表 ; 30公分.
指導教授：甯蜀光參考書目：面102-110附錄：1.荖濃溪流量馬可夫鏈轉換矩陣；2.隘寮溪流量馬可夫鏈轉換矩陣；3.旗山溪流量馬可夫鏈轉換矩陣.
馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法Markov Chain Monte Carlo method

以馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法探討水資源利用之不確定性分析 = Uncertainty analysis for water resources utilization by Markov Chain Monte Carlo method
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