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Symptom or disease? Arms races and the causes of war (Germany, Japan).

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Symptom or disease? Arms races and the causes of war (Germany, Japan).
Author:	Runkle, Benjamin Gordon.
Description:	411 p.
Notes:	Adviser: Stephen Peter Rosen.
Notes:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 64-05, Section: A, page: 1833.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International64-05A.
Subject:	Political Science, General.
Online resource:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3091673
ISBN:	0496393820

Symptom or disease? Arms races and the causes of war (Germany, Japan).
Runkle, Benjamin Gordon.

Symptom or disease? Arms races and the causes of war (Germany, Japan).[electronic resource] - 411 p.

Adviser: Stephen Peter Rosen.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Harvard University, 2003.

"It is possible that more words have been written about arms races than the number of bullets fired in the wars that followed them," a scholar of arms races once noted. Whether or not this is true, there are still many unresolved questions regarding the relationship between arms races and war. Although the quantitative studies that have dominated this field of research over the past 25 years show a strong, positive correlation between arms races and the outbreak of war, even the strongest quantitative findings are probabilistic. Thus, two scholars note: "If there is any consensus among arms race studies, it is that some arms races lead to war and some do not." In other words, these studies tell us little about precisely that which policymakers seek to understand---the causal mechanisms that lead from arms races to armed conflict. This represents a significant gap in our knowledge about the relationship between military buildups and war. If we are to gain practical knowledge on this subject to help policymakers prevent war, then the question of how arms races cause war may be as important as whether arms races cause war.

ISBN: 0496393820Subjects--Topical Terms:

212408
Political Science, General.

Symptom or disease? Arms races and the causes of war (Germany, Japan).
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500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 64-05, Section: A, page: 1833.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--Harvard University, 2003.
520 # $a "It is possible that more words have been written about arms races than the number of bullets fired in the wars that followed them," a scholar of arms races once noted. Whether or not this is true, there are still many unresolved questions regarding the relationship between arms races and war. Although the quantitative studies that have dominated this field of research over the past 25 years show a strong, positive correlation between arms races and the outbreak of war, even the strongest quantitative findings are probabilistic. Thus, two scholars note: "If there is any consensus among arms race studies, it is that some arms races lead to war and some do not." In other words, these studies tell us little about precisely that which policymakers seek to understand---the causal mechanisms that lead from arms races to armed conflict. This represents a significant gap in our knowledge about the relationship between military buildups and war. If we are to gain practical knowledge on this subject to help policymakers prevent war, then the question of how arms races cause war may be as important as whether arms races cause war.
520 # $a In order to move beyond correlation to a theory of causation, in this dissertation I use a methodology combining focused-comparison of multiple case studies and a correlative analysis to test five hypotheses of how arms races cause war. In the end, I find that the hypothesis that clearly enjoys the strongest predictive success is the "Windows-Militarism" hypothesis, which claims that arms races will lead to war when they create a window of opportunity through which a militaristic state can launch a preventive war. This hypothesis correctly predicts the occurrence/non-occurrence of war in 87.5% of cases in the universe of great power arms races from 1815--1989. The findings of this correlative analysis are supported when the Windows-Militarism hypothesis is subjected to rigorous process tracing in four case studies: the 1872--1893 German-Franco army race, the 1910--1914 German-Franco/Russian army race, and the 1916--1922 and 1934--1941 U.S.-Japanese naval races.
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