國立高雄大學圖資館 |

Language: English

Back

Elicitationthe science and art of st...

Dias, Luis C.

Elicitationthe science and art of structuring judgement /

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Elicitationedited by Luis C. Dias, Alec Morton, John Quigley.
Reminder of title:	the science and art of structuring judgement /
other author:	Dias, Luis C.
Published:	Cham :Springer International Publishing :2018.
Description:	viii, 542 p. :ill., digital ;24 cm.
Contained By:	Springer eBooks
Subject:	Elicitation.
Online resource:	http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4
ISBN:	9783319650524$q(electronic bk.)

Elicitationthe science and art of structuring judgement /
Elicitationthe science and art of structuring judgement /[electronic resource] :edited by Luis C. Dias, Alec Morton, John Quigley. - Cham :Springer International Publishing :2018. - viii, 542 p. :ill., digital ;24 cm. - International series in operations research & management science,v.2610884-8289 ;. - International series in operations research & management science ;v. 140..

Elicitation: State of the Art and Science -- Elicitation in the Classical Model -- Validation in the Classical Model -- SHELF: The Sheffield Elicitation Framework -- IDEA for Uncertainty Quantification -- Elicitation and Calibration: A Bayesian Perspective -- Constructing Subjective Probability Distributions with Data: An Empirical Bayes Approach -- Eliciting Multivariate Uncertainty from Experts: Considerations and Approaches Along the Expert Judgement Process -- Combining Judgments from Correlated Experts -- Utility Elicitation -- Elicitation in Target-Oriented Utility -- Multiattribute Value Elicitation -- Disaggregation Approach to Value Elicitation -- Eliciting Multi-Criteria Preferences: ELECTRE Models -- Individual and Group Biases in Value and Uncertainty Judgments -- The Selection of Experts for (Probabilistic) Expert Knowledge Elicitation -- Eliciting Probabilistic Judgments for Integrating Decision Support Systems -- Expert Elicitation to Inform Health Technology Assessment -- Expert Judgement Based Nuclear Threat Assessment for Vessels Arriving in the US -- Risk Assessment using Group Elicitation: Case Study on Start-up of a New Logistics System -- Group Decision Support for Ecology Economics: A Case Study to Guide the Process of Preferences' Elicitation.

This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other's developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE) Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.

ISBN: 9783319650524$q(electronic bk.)

Standard No.: 10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4doiSubjects--Topical Terms:

801972
Elicitation.

LC Class. No.: BF311

Dewey Class. No.: 153.4

Elicitationthe science and art of structuring judgement /
LDR:04412nmm a2200337 a 4500 001 529102
003 DE-He213
005 20180716110516.0
006 m d
007 cr nn 008maaau
008 181105s2018 gw s 0 eng d
020 $a 9783319650524$q(electronic bk.)
020 $a 9783319650517$q(paper)
024 7 $a 10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4 $2 doi
035 $a 978-3-319-65052-4
040 $a GP $c GP
041 0 $a eng
050 4 $a BF311
072 7 $a KJT $2 bicssc
072 7 $a KJMD $2 bicssc
072 7 $a BUS049000 $2 bisacsh
082 0 4 $a 153.4 $2 23
090 $a BF311 $b .E42 2018
245 0 0 $a Elicitation $h [electronic resource] : $b the science and art of structuring judgement / $c edited by Luis C. Dias, Alec Morton, John Quigley.
260 $a Cham : $b Springer International Publishing : $b Imprint: Springer, $c 2018.
300 $a viii, 542 p. : $b ill., digital ; $c 24 cm.
490 1 $a International series in operations research & management science, $x 0884-8289 ; $v v.261
505 0 $a Elicitation: State of the Art and Science -- Elicitation in the Classical Model -- Validation in the Classical Model -- SHELF: The Sheffield Elicitation Framework -- IDEA for Uncertainty Quantification -- Elicitation and Calibration: A Bayesian Perspective -- Constructing Subjective Probability Distributions with Data: An Empirical Bayes Approach -- Eliciting Multivariate Uncertainty from Experts: Considerations and Approaches Along the Expert Judgement Process -- Combining Judgments from Correlated Experts -- Utility Elicitation -- Elicitation in Target-Oriented Utility -- Multiattribute Value Elicitation -- Disaggregation Approach to Value Elicitation -- Eliciting Multi-Criteria Preferences: ELECTRE Models -- Individual and Group Biases in Value and Uncertainty Judgments -- The Selection of Experts for (Probabilistic) Expert Knowledge Elicitation -- Eliciting Probabilistic Judgments for Integrating Decision Support Systems -- Expert Elicitation to Inform Health Technology Assessment -- Expert Judgement Based Nuclear Threat Assessment for Vessels Arriving in the US -- Risk Assessment using Group Elicitation: Case Study on Start-up of a New Logistics System -- Group Decision Support for Ecology Economics: A Case Study to Guide the Process of Preferences' Elicitation.
520 $a This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other's developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE) Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.
650 0 $a Elicitation. $3 801972
650 0 $a Decision making. $3 183849
650 1 4 $a Business and Management. $2 eflch $3 639169
650 2 4 $a Operations Research/Decision Theory. $3 273963
650 2 4 $a Operations Research, Management Science. $3 511451
650 2 4 $a Operations Management. $3 731073
700 1 $a Dias, Luis C. $3 801970
700 1 $a Morton, Alec. $3 524258
700 1 $a Quigley, John. $3 801971
710 2 $a SpringerLink (Online service) $3 273601
773 0 $t Springer eBooks
830 0 $a International series in operations research & management science ; $v v. 140. $3 490892
856 4 0 $u http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4
950 $a Business and Management (Springer-41169)