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Experts, social scientists, and tech...

Daye, Christian.

Experts, social scientists, and techniques of prognosis in Cold War America

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Experts, social scientists, and techniques of prognosis in Cold War Americaby Christian Daye.
Author:	Daye, Christian.
Published:	Cham :Springer International Publishing :2020.
Description:	xvi, 246 p. :ill., digital ;24 cm.
Contained By:	Springer eBooks
Subject:	SociologyHistory.United States
Online resource:	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-32781-1
ISBN:	9783030327811$q(electronic bk.)

Experts, social scientists, and techniques of prognosis in Cold War America
Daye, Christian.

Experts, social scientists, and techniques of prognosis in Cold War America[electronic resource] /by Christian Daye. - Cham :Springer International Publishing :2020. - xvi, 246 p. :ill., digital ;24 cm. - Socio-historical studies of the social and human sciences. - Socio-historical studies of the social and human sciences..

1. Introduction: A Culture of Insecurity and its Experts -- 2. Experts, Think Tanks, and the Delicate Balance of Public Trust. - 3. The Wisdom of the Group: RAND's First Experiments with Expert Prediction, 1947-1951 -- 4. Negotiating Rules for the Game: Political Games at RAND, 1954-1956 -- 5. The Oracle's Epistemology: Expert Opinions as Scientific Material -- 6.The Boredom of the Crowd: The Long-Range Forecasting Delphi, 1963-1964 -- 7. Conclusion: The Strength of Epistemic Hopes.

This book describes how Cold War researchers used expert opinions to construct foreknowledge of geopolitical relevance. Focusing on the RAND Corporation, an American think tank with close relations to the armed forces, Daye analyses the development of two techniques of prognosis, the Delphi technique and Political Gaming. Based on archival research and interviews, the chapters explore the history of this series of experiments to understand how contemporary social scientists conceived of one of the core categories of the Cold War, the expert, and uncover the systematic use of expert opinions to craft prognoses. This consideration of the expert's role in Cold War society and what that can tell us about the role of the expert today will be of interest to students and scholars across the history of science, the sociology of knowledge, future studies, the history of the Cold War, social science methodology, and social policy.

ISBN: 9783030327811$q(electronic bk.)

Standard No.: 10.1007/978-3-030-32781-1doiSubjects--Corporate Names:

540190
Rand Corporation
--Influence.Subjects--Topical Terms:

175597
Sociology
--History.--United States

LC Class. No.: HM477.U6 / D393 2020

Dewey Class. No.: 301.0973

Experts, social scientists, and techniques of prognosis in Cold War America
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520 $a This book describes how Cold War researchers used expert opinions to construct foreknowledge of geopolitical relevance. Focusing on the RAND Corporation, an American think tank with close relations to the armed forces, Daye analyses the development of two techniques of prognosis, the Delphi technique and Political Gaming. Based on archival research and interviews, the chapters explore the history of this series of experiments to understand how contemporary social scientists conceived of one of the core categories of the Cold War, the expert, and uncover the systematic use of expert opinions to craft prognoses. This consideration of the expert's role in Cold War society and what that can tell us about the role of the expert today will be of interest to students and scholars across the history of science, the sociology of knowledge, future studies, the history of the Cold War, social science methodology, and social policy.
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