國立高雄大學圖資館 |

Language: English

Back

Navigating uncertainty using foresight intelligencea guidebook for scoping scenario options in cyber and beyond /

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Navigating uncertainty using foresight intelligenceby Bruce Garvey, Adam D. M. Svendsen.
Reminder of title:	a guidebook for scoping scenario options in cyber and beyond /
Author:	Garvey, Bruce.
other author:	Svendsen, Adam D. M.
Published:	Cham :Springer Nature Switzerland :2024.
Description:	xxxii, 340 p. :ill. (some col.), digital ;24 cm.
Contained By:	Springer Nature eBook
Subject:	Computer security.
Online resource:	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-66115-0
ISBN:	9783031661150$q(electronic bk.)

Navigating uncertainty using foresight intelligencea guidebook for scoping scenario options in cyber and beyond /
Garvey, Bruce.

Navigating uncertainty using foresight intelligencea guidebook for scoping scenario options in cyber and beyond /[electronic resource] :by Bruce Garvey, Adam D. M. Svendsen. - Cham :Springer Nature Switzerland :2024. - xxxii, 340 p. :ill. (some col.), digital ;24 cm. - Management for professionals,2192-810X. - Management for professionals..

Generating Cyber Intelligence (CYBINT) scenarios & solutions to address uncertainty for decision-advantage: Using Intelligence Engineering & Strategic Options Analysis -- A Macro Cyber Scenario Case Study using Intelligence Engineering & Strategic Options Analysis Methods -- Examining the Landscape of Unauthorised Cyber Access (with reference to POSTnote #684) -- Intelligence Engineering-led set-up of generic Strategic Options Analysis Problem to Solution Spaces: Cyber example demonstration -- More than Semantics? Communication of (Un)certainty via 'Estimative/Probabilistic Language' -- Estimative/Probabilistic Language - Part II: Expanding the Range of Scenario Options -- Scoping 'Digital Twins' in intelligence & strategic foresight projects -- Generative-AI Pilot for Problem Spaces: Can ChatGPT help develop Scenarios? -- An Outline for an Interrogative/Prompt Library to help improve output quality from Generative-AI Datasets -- Prompt-engineering testing ChatGPT4 & Bard for assessing Generative-AI efficacy to support decision-making -- Can Generative-AI (ChatGPT and Bard) Be Used as Red Team Avatars in Developing Foresight Scenarios? -- Realising Foresight Intelligence (FORINT) - Advancing an Intelligence-derived Foresight Framework -- The Role of the Scenario and its Reassessment -- Advancing a New Methodological Process -- Process implications - Current software enhancements, including increasing levels of AI.

This book brings together a diverse range of findings on current and emerging business concerns when the authors were developing a series of 12 working Analytic Research Consortium (ARC) White Papers. It presents several, differently configured scenarios, drawing on cyber as an example; the use and further optimization of estimative/probabilistic language; communicating analytical insights and other findings concerning '(un)certainty' to decision-maker end-users; and mitigating risk. It also evaluates in detail today's rapidly evolving Gen-AI systems and technologies, e.g. those underlying OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Bard/Gemini. This includes their respective value concerning scenario development and other business-relevant methods, tools and techniques, e.g. 'Red Teaming'. The topics discussed are assessed using the multi-methodologies of, firstly, 'Intelligence Engineering' (IE) and, secondly, 'Strategic Options Analysis' (SOA) The latter half of the book introduces an alternative scenario planning process, including use of new computer-software and AI tools. In addition to Gen-AI, we identify that the emerging discipline of Causal AI may work better for foresight and scenario activities. The book is a valuable read for a diverse readership from the public and private sectors, spanning government, the military, law enforcement, education, industry, commerce, retail, and enterprises of all sizes. Also, students at business schools and high-level decision-makers, including politicians, military commanders, and C-Suite leaders in various fields, will benefit from it.

ISBN: 9783031661150$q(electronic bk.)

Standard No.: 10.1007/978-3-031-66115-0doiSubjects--Topical Terms:

184416
Computer security.

LC Class. No.: QA76.9.A25

Dewey Class. No.: 005.8

Navigating uncertainty using foresight intelligencea guidebook for scoping scenario options in cyber and beyond /
LDR:04214nmm a2200361 a 4500 001 671158
003 DE-He213
005 20241025125732.0
006 m d
007 cr nn 008maaau
008 250325s2024 sz s 0 eng d
020 $a 9783031661150$q(electronic bk.)
020 $a 9783031661143$q(paper)
024 7 $a 10.1007/978-3-031-66115-0 $2 doi
035 $a 978-3-031-66115-0
040 $a GP $c GP
041 0 $a eng
050 4 $a QA76.9.A25
072 7 $a KJT $2 bicssc
072 7 $a KJMD $2 bicssc
072 7 $a BUS049000 $2 bisacsh
072 7 $a KJT $2 thema
072 7 $a KJMD $2 thema
082 0 4 $a 005.8 $2 23
090 $a QA76.9.A25 $b G244 2024
100 1 $a Garvey, Bruce. $3 933296
245 1 0 $a Navigating uncertainty using foresight intelligence $h [electronic resource] : $b a guidebook for scoping scenario options in cyber and beyond / $c by Bruce Garvey, Adam D. M. Svendsen.
260 $a Cham : $b Springer Nature Switzerland : $b Imprint: Springer, $c 2024.
300 $a xxxii, 340 p. : $b ill. (some col.), digital ; $c 24 cm.
490 1 $a Management for professionals, $x 2192-810X
505 0 $a Generating Cyber Intelligence (CYBINT) scenarios & solutions to address uncertainty for decision-advantage: Using Intelligence Engineering & Strategic Options Analysis -- A Macro Cyber Scenario Case Study using Intelligence Engineering & Strategic Options Analysis Methods -- Examining the Landscape of Unauthorised Cyber Access (with reference to POSTnote #684) -- Intelligence Engineering-led set-up of generic Strategic Options Analysis Problem to Solution Spaces: Cyber example demonstration -- More than Semantics? Communication of (Un)certainty via 'Estimative/Probabilistic Language' -- Estimative/Probabilistic Language - Part II: Expanding the Range of Scenario Options -- Scoping 'Digital Twins' in intelligence & strategic foresight projects -- Generative-AI Pilot for Problem Spaces: Can ChatGPT help develop Scenarios? -- An Outline for an Interrogative/Prompt Library to help improve output quality from Generative-AI Datasets -- Prompt-engineering testing ChatGPT4 & Bard for assessing Generative-AI efficacy to support decision-making -- Can Generative-AI (ChatGPT and Bard) Be Used as Red Team Avatars in Developing Foresight Scenarios? -- Realising Foresight Intelligence (FORINT) - Advancing an Intelligence-derived Foresight Framework -- The Role of the Scenario and its Reassessment -- Advancing a New Methodological Process -- Process implications - Current software enhancements, including increasing levels of AI.
520 $a This book brings together a diverse range of findings on current and emerging business concerns when the authors were developing a series of 12 working Analytic Research Consortium (ARC) White Papers. It presents several, differently configured scenarios, drawing on cyber as an example; the use and further optimization of estimative/probabilistic language; communicating analytical insights and other findings concerning '(un)certainty' to decision-maker end-users; and mitigating risk. It also evaluates in detail today's rapidly evolving Gen-AI systems and technologies, e.g. those underlying OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Bard/Gemini. This includes their respective value concerning scenario development and other business-relevant methods, tools and techniques, e.g. 'Red Teaming'. The topics discussed are assessed using the multi-methodologies of, firstly, 'Intelligence Engineering' (IE) and, secondly, 'Strategic Options Analysis' (SOA) The latter half of the book introduces an alternative scenario planning process, including use of new computer-software and AI tools. In addition to Gen-AI, we identify that the emerging discipline of Causal AI may work better for foresight and scenario activities. The book is a valuable read for a diverse readership from the public and private sectors, spanning government, the military, law enforcement, education, industry, commerce, retail, and enterprises of all sizes. Also, students at business schools and high-level decision-makers, including politicians, military commanders, and C-Suite leaders in various fields, will benefit from it.
650 0 $a Computer security. $3 184416
650 0 $a Uncertainty (Information theory) $3 206405
650 0 $a Artificial intelligence. $3 194058
650 1 4 $a Operations Research and Decision Theory. $3 914898
650 2 4 $a Artificial Intelligence. $3 212515
650 2 4 $a Knowledge Management. $3 277143
650 2 4 $a IT in Business. $3 703717
650 2 4 $a Innovation and Technology Management. $3 913107
650 2 4 $a Operations Management. $3 731073
700 1 $a Svendsen, Adam D. M. $3 642623
710 2 $a SpringerLink (Online service) $3 273601
773 0 $t Springer Nature eBook
830 0 $a Management for professionals. $3 557942
856 4 0 $u https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-66115-0
950 $a Business and Management (SpringerNature-41169)