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COVID-19 pandemic dynamicsmathematic...

Nesteruk, Igor.

COVID-19 pandemic dynamicsmathematical simulations /

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	COVID-19 pandemic dynamicsby Igor Nesteruk.
Reminder of title:	mathematical simulations /
Author:	Nesteruk, Igor.
Published:	Singapore :Springer Singapore :2021.
Description:	xii, 172 p. :ill., digital ;24 cm.
Contained By:	Springer Nature eBook
Subject:	COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020-Mathematical models.
Online resource:	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5
ISBN:	9789813364165$q(electronic bk.)

COVID-19 pandemic dynamicsmathematical simulations /
Nesteruk, Igor.

COVID-19 pandemic dynamicsmathematical simulations /[electronic resource] :by Igor Nesteruk. - Singapore :Springer Singapore :2021. - xii, 172 p. :ill., digital ;24 cm.

Introduction -- Data used for calculations, comparisons and verifications -- Classical SIR model and the exact solution of differential equations -- Results of SIR simulation for the pandemic dynamics in different countries and regions -- Procedures of the parameter identification for the waves of epidemics -- Conclusions.

This book highlights the estimate of epidemic characteristics for different countries/regions in the world with the use of known SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model for the dynamics of the epidemic, the known exact solution of the linear differential equations and statistical approach developed before. The COVID-19 pandemic is of great interest to researchers due to its high mortality and a negative impact to the world economy. Correct simulation of the pandemic dynamics needs complicated mathematical models and many efforts for unknown parameters identification. The simple method of detection of the new pandemic wave is proposed and SIR model generalized. The hidden periods, epidemic durations, final numbers of cases, the effective reproduction numbers and probabilities of meeting an infected person are presented for countries like USA, Germany, UK, the Republic of Korea, Italy, Spain, France, the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine, and for the world. The presented information is useful to regulate the quarantine activities and to predict the medical and economic consequences of different/future pandemics.

ISBN: 9789813364165$q(electronic bk.)

Standard No.: 10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5doiSubjects--Topical Terms:

895419
COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020-
--Mathematical models.

LC Class. No.: RA644.C67

Dewey Class. No.: 614.592414

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505 0 $a Introduction -- Data used for calculations, comparisons and verifications -- Classical SIR model and the exact solution of differential equations -- Results of SIR simulation for the pandemic dynamics in different countries and regions -- Procedures of the parameter identification for the waves of epidemics -- Conclusions.
520 $a This book highlights the estimate of epidemic characteristics for different countries/regions in the world with the use of known SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model for the dynamics of the epidemic, the known exact solution of the linear differential equations and statistical approach developed before. The COVID-19 pandemic is of great interest to researchers due to its high mortality and a negative impact to the world economy. Correct simulation of the pandemic dynamics needs complicated mathematical models and many efforts for unknown parameters identification. The simple method of detection of the new pandemic wave is proposed and SIR model generalized. The hidden periods, epidemic durations, final numbers of cases, the effective reproduction numbers and probabilities of meeting an infected person are presented for countries like USA, Germany, UK, the Republic of Korea, Italy, Spain, France, the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine, and for the world. The presented information is useful to regulate the quarantine activities and to predict the medical and economic consequences of different/future pandemics.
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